Test Driving a Rapid Disaster Modelling Methodology for British Columbia Earthquakes
3 November 2020
Presentation & Discussion
Introduce the project as well as current roadblocks and provide an open-format opportunity for community feedback.
Identify existing tools that can be used in this initiative (e.g. can BCSIMS shakemaps be exported to OpenQuake?) and other groups that might benefit from being brought in as project partners.
Identify the types of output that would be needed to make this tool useful for practitioners. (ex: Maps of expected casualties posted on GeoBC’s Common Operating Picture? Or would a simple PAGER-style output on the NRCan website suffice?)
Demonstrate the tool by test-driving scenarios, as time permits.
Explore best practice and the feasibility of using rapidly available seismic data in the existing OpenQuake Canada framework to report on key metrics for early response: collapsed buildings, entrapment injuries, hospital demand surge.
This work presents a new initiative to develop a rapid disaster modelling protocol for earthquakes in British Columbia (BC). We will explore best practice and the feasibility of using rapidly available seismic data in the existing OpenQuake Canada framework to model the impacts to people, the built environment, and the economy. The current prototype will integrate observed ground motion data from the BC Smart Infrastructure Monitoring System with physical exposure data from Natural Resources Canada’s (NRCan) Human Settlement Layer to report on key metrics for early response: collapsed buildings, entrapment injuries, hospital demand surge, roadway debris which may block response, and immediate mass care needs like shelter requirements. These indicators will be ported to the GeoBC Common Operating Picture, the online portal for authoritative and coordinated distribution of emergency management information in the province. These outputs could likely be made available within tens of minutes of the earthquake occurring.
Without this tool, municipalities would have to rely on reports from first responders, reconnaissance along disrupted roadways by emergency personnel, or aerial surveillance performed by the military. The latter is expected to take at least 12 hours, a crucial period following a major earthquake in which situational awareness can be vastly improved by our tool. We hope to get feedback from emergency managers, first responders, and any other regional stakeholders about how this prototype performs and what changes they would like to make to it.
Convened Tiegan Hobbs and Gurdeep Singh, with Murray Journeay